Is the Tipping Point Coming in 2025?
As the year 2025 begins, a number of events have conspired to bring about a particularly potent reaction among the British people. This livid response puts me in mind of something that a Helsinki primary school headmaster told me in about 2011. This may seem like a rather obscure connection to make, but bear with me.
What have we seen in just the last few days?
Firstly, it has been revealed that a leaked UK government report condemned those who were concerned about the grooming and gang rape by Pakistanis of underage white underclass girls (some as young as 9) in deprived English towns over the last 30 years as “right wing extremists” and “conspiracy theorists.”
Secondly, the country's Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson, declared that indoctrination with the joys of Multiculturalism must be ramped up in UK schools. These are schools where, already, the History curriculum is exclusively the Slave Trade and the Nazis.
Thirdly, the Under Secretary of State for "Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls," Jess Phillips, rejected calls for a public inquiry into Pakistani grooming gangs in Oldham in the Northwest of England. This has led to renewed fury over the deliberate cover-up of what went on by Woke-motivated social workers, politicians, and police who were concerned that if the truth came out, then "Multiculturalism" would be challenged. These "truths" include social workers claiming that the girls were difficult and basically deserved it, that (as one Pakistani Labour MP concurred) they should shut up about it for the sake of "diversity," a Rotherham girl having an air pump applied to her anus so that two Pakistani penises could fit up it, the same girl having a baseball bat inserted into her vagina for complaining, and a 14-year-old girl in Blackpool being raped, murdered, dismembered, and sold to fellow English people as kebab meat.
Oh, and there have been two Islamic terrorist attacks in the US, with the one in New Orleans having claimed 15 lives so far. This has happened in a context in which the wealthiest man in the world is putting his support behind the AfD in Germany, which is campaigning for the mass deportation of Muslim men, and behind the (albeit slightly cucked) Reform Party in the UK.
How does this relate to my Helsinki headmaster? He remarked to me that he noticed that once about one-third of the pupils at his school were non-Finns, then almost all of the Finnish pupils left and seemed to do so very quickly. Accordingly, by the time I spoke to him, his school, in a poor area of the Finnish capital, was overwhelmingly non-Finnish.
We are pack animals, and each member of our pack has a threshold. When this is reached, they will react. They will, for example, become angry about something, and this will gradually become clear, with subtle changes in how they behave. Alternatively, they might become anxious about something, with the same results. When enough people with low thresholds are activated, you start to get a cascade effect.
A study in the journal Science in 2018 – “Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention” – found the tipping-point to be 25%. Once 25% of people in a group change their mind about, for example, which is the larger of two rectangles, then, even if the 25% are empirically wrong, the rest of the group will flip over to their point of view relatively quickly. The norms of the entire group will shift; there will be a cascade effect.
Why does this happen? It happens because the "radicals," oozing confidence, are seen as the up-and-coming elite; the Young Turks who are gaining power and, naturally, you want to be on the winning team. It happens because we are highly social creatures and we wish to be accepted; to not be left out, so we try to get in ahead of the rest to reap the relevant social benefits. It happens because most of us look to others for guidance; we rely on others and imitate them. There is something about a quarter of a group doing something or believing something new which signals to us that this is the way the herd is moving, and we had better move with them or be ripped apart by the wolves that stalk the stragglers.
We can find ways to justify ignoring what is happening when people with very low thresholds for the abuse of members of their group by Pakistani males get upset about it. In 2004, the British National Party (BNP) first drew attention to what was happening to underage white girls in these ex-Industrial northern towns. They were filmed doing so by an undercover reporter, and the leader of the BNP (as well as two other prominent members) was put on trial for inciting racial hatred. They were eventually found "Not Guilty," with their barrister mentioning the climate of fear in England which increasingly made people frightened to express their opinions. This was twenty years ago, and it's obviously got far worse since.
We would expect, as living standards got worse and worse due to Multiculturalism and immigration – more and more crime, worse and worse services, competing with foreigners for jobs and scarce accommodation, openly lied to and held in contempt by your virtue-signaling elite - more and more people's threshold for suppressing their feelings (or even for forcing themselves to believe in the benefits of Multiculturalism in order to feel moral and not like pariahs) would be surpassed. More and more people would start expressing how they genuinely felt in private conversations, which would embolden psychologically weaker and psychologically more conformist people to do the same. And if a powerful group whom they tend to imitate and grudgingly admire gets on board – the US, via Elon Musk tweeting about it all – then this will embolden the psychologically weak even further.
I get the impression that Sir Keir Starmer's tone-deaf, authoritarian, nakedly partisan reaction to the riots in the wake of the Jihadist Stockport Massacre was a turning point for many people. With this, what was happening – two-tier policing, murder due to Multicultural policies, the contempt of the Woke elite for English people – was so obvious that the threshold was passed. More and more people were prepared to accept low-status yet empirically accurate beliefs: the English elite are wilfully following a policy to turn the English into a minority, they prefer Pakistani rapists to underclass English girls, the Multiculturalism from which they get their moral status must be upheld even if it means lying and sacrificing these girls (literally in the case of the one from Blackpool), and there is a low-level civil war in England in which Pakistani males engage in this behavior in order to humiliate the natives and signal their tribal success. Tribes always conquer other tribes by taking control of their females.
In December 1989, the Romanian Communist dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu (1918-1989) infamously fell on live television when the herd moved in front of him while he was delivering a speech to the crowd in Bucharest. They began booing and laughing; their fear overcome; their threshold finally reached. Everyone, even his bodyguard who advised him to leave the stage, realized it was over. He was executed, along with his wife, on Christmas Day.
With the interrelated events of the past few days, I wonder if the English herd is finally beginning to move.
For more based-science analysis of society and politics, become a subscriber at JollyHeretic.com!
Did you miss the last Dutton’s Digest? Click below:
In terms of tipping points, I see that ReformUK are at last beginning to get their act together as a proper political party. A few days ago – several months after joining – I at last got a membership number and emails have gone out asking for applicants for jobs as regional organisers, researchers, etc., as well as a call for council candidates who this time would be properly screened. I am under no illusions that Reform UK is perfect but in terms of the political system we have, supporting it is probably the best we can do for the next few years. Certainly, it is preferable to the sorts of organisations that may come out of the woodwork if things continue to deteriorate at the current rate.
I unironically believe that, were King Charles have the balls to do so, he could stand up against all this chaos, receive significant public support, dismantle parliament, and establish an absolute monarchy with the goal of restoring sanity to Britain and the people would cheer him on like a reverse Cromwell or Stuart Restoration.